Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2199
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 04:00:17

ACUS11 KWNS 040400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040359=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Discussion 2199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...much of southeast Oklahoma into far western
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 703...

Valid 040359Z - 040600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 703 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms remain possible near the warm
front, but the overall risk has decreased compared to earlier this
evening. However, trends will need to be monitored for changes in
storm mode/structure.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms, mostly elevated, moved across eastern
OK and into western AR earlier this evening, outpacing the warm
front to the south. Recently, observations indicate the front is
making northward progress across southeast OK and into west-central
AR. In addition, radar shows new development near this boundary. A
rather tight temperature gradient still exists north of the
boundary, suggesting a limited region for storms to produce
tornadoes. However, this is also supporting lift and additional
cells may regenerate over the next several hours. Given effective
0-1 SRH around 300 m2/s2 along the boundary, a brief tornado will be
possible.

...Jewell.. 11/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5TJ0BguWxrK2RVtkwEoWek4nv6s8I9Jnpm0zLXYM_Kfthl79h6RfVp8y0iQ2iEORbKcQJ3CrJ=
dY9YQqGkZhgwIVeUgw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35539589 35619425 35359381 34919378 34719391 34479422
            34439481 34589547 34639589 34799621 35109628 35279627
            35539589=20


=3D =3D =3D
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