Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 00:59:16 ACUS01 KWNS 040059 SWODY1 SPC AC 040057 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are expected. ....01z Update... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing east across the Four Corners region early this evening. 90+kt 500mb speed max will rotate into the base of this feature over northern Mexico late tonight and into far West TX by sunrise. In response, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the southern High Plains later this evening, with the nose of the LLJ expected to focus into western OK by the end of the period. 20-30kt southerly 1km winds are currently noted at SJT/MAF/DYX, and higher PWs will begin to surge north over the next few hours into the TX South Plains. Scattered convection continues to trail southwest across the Big Country, but this activity is not currently strongly forced. However, low-level convergence should increase across northwest TX as the LLJ increases, and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely develop late this evening into the early-morning hours as far northwest as the eastern portions of LBB CWA. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep 2-6km lapse rates, which contribute to MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg within an environment that will become increasingly sheared. Long hodographs appear favorable for very large hail with this activity. Additionally, as upper 60s surface dew points advance into southwest OK, surface-based parcels become uninhibited and substantial SBCAPE will once again develop. In addition to large hail, threat of tornadoes may increase very late in the period as boundary layer recovers across this portion of the Plains. Otherwise, a larger complex of storms, that currently extends from the Red River into eastern OK, will gradually advance east this evening. Scattered supercells are embedded within this corridor, especially along the leading edge. Wind fields continue to support long-lived updrafts and all hazards remain possible, especially wind/tornadoes. The primary risk for large hail will accompany the late-night supercells ahead of the mid-level speed max. ...Darrow.. 11/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .