Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 00:02:06 AWUS01 KWNH 040001 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040559- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 701 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...in and near portions of eastern OK, AR, and southern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 032359Z - 040559Z Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms over saturating soils and area terrain are expected to lead to scattered instances of flash flooding through 06z. Hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are expected over that time frame. Discussion...An upper trough crossing the southern Rockies is causing a broad area of divergence aloft across portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South. An effective front, part synoptic scale and part outflow boundary, extends from a low near the Red River of the South across southern and eastern AR into the Bootheel of MO. Along and north of the boundary a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall exists, with a slight break in easternmost OK. Precipitable water values are near 2" per GPS data. MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg exists near the convection. Effective bulk shear is near 60 kts, more than sufficient for mesocyclone development. The mean flow is out of the south-southwest at ~60 kts, with some veering seen in the low-levels. This is helping to support training convective bands. The mesoscale guidance broadly supports heavy rainfall in the region, with high chances of 3"+ across southeast OK, northwest AR, and some of southern MO. The two areas of heavy rainfall are expected to merge with a potential increase in intensity as warm air advection increases MU CAPE into the region over the next several hours due to strengthening 850 hPa inflow from the Gulf of Mexico. Some veering to the low-level flow should continue eastward progression, but also increase the likelihood for cell training as the flow becomes more unidirectional with height.=20 Given the ingredients available, hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local totals to 5" are expected over the next several hours, which would prove too much for saturating soils across portions of eastern OK and southwest AR. Such rainfall would be problematic in the terrain of the Ozarks as well. Given the above, chose the flash flooding likely category as scattered instances of such are expected through 06z. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5roeQX5FJkgHaqNiYugR-h_BHSGYwzeRuOBttKnx0vGVCyXi9xIkJ9nsI1XZrgAJKz2O= qlqQtvL4M1H9-6pU3n9apao$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF... SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37909406 37639210 37599025 37038960 34749105=20 33719305 33079646 33279801 34459757 34859724=20 36089668 37419605 37489496=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .