Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2193 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 03 2024 20:40:45 ACUS11 KWNS 032040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032040=20 OKZ000-KSZ000-032245- Mesoscale Discussion 2193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 032040Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected and will pose a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Trends will be monitored for the need for a watch later this evening. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection has increased in coverage across western OK along the I-40 corridor in response to strengthening low-level warm advection and steady destabilization. MRMS VII and cloud top temperature trends suggest that much of the activity along and north of I-40 remains sub-severe, but signs of intensification have been noted in a few cells. The expectation is thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase as this activity spreads from western OK into northwest OK and south-central KS through the late afternoon and evening hours. While most convection will likely remain elevated, steady warming/moistening in the low levels may support a few surface based storms - especially where temperatures and dewpoints can reach into the low 70s and upper 60s respectively. 40-60 knot mid and upper-level flow over the region is supporting elongated hodographs favorable for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail (most likely between 1.0-1.75 inches) and severe wind gusts. Additionally, the low-level warm advection regime is yielding 0-1 km SRH values between 200-300 m2/s2 (per regional VWPs), which will support a tornado threat if surface-based convection can be realized. While this potential is noted, weak inhibition and persistent ascent will promote scattered thunderstorms with a somewhat high probability for storm interactions and unfavorable storm modes as storms spread north/northeast with time. Trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance if semi-discrete, surface-based convection can be realized and pose a greater severe threat. ...Moore/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6_8YqnDKAaREdZ1v4HcdYTTGpm-iqJg8QBv78LNLEgTMkCpNc8ts0AM0C8rLFENJ5XD6hztN-= WvgtjpA8S1P5ICRrBg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35839987 36069983 37699922 37949889 37999855 37809763 37329671 37059659 36699672 36379694 35989720 35779767 35619840 35489951 35589987 35839987=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .