Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 03 2024 19:56:46 ACUS01 KWNS 031956 SWODY1 SPC AC 031955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible. ....20z Update... No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update. However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information. It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma. Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now, confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192 for additional information. ...Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/ ....TX/OK/AR/MO... Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM. A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening, resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .