Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 03 2024 16:29:43

ACUS01 KWNS 031629
SWODY1
SPC AC 031628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today
through tonight over parts of the southern Plains.  Tornadoes,
damaging winds and large hail are possible.

....TX/OK/AR/MO...
Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over
parts of west TX.  Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with
dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification
and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM.
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north
TX into southeast OK.  It is anticipated that storms to the west
will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening,
resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell
structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk.  Recent CAM
solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into
southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of
damaging wind gusts.

...Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024

$$

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