Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 03 2024 10:18:21 AWUS01 KWNH 031018 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031435- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 517 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...southwestern MO, southeastern KS, northwestern AR, northeastern OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 031016Z - 031435Z Summary...A localized occurrence or two of flash flooding will be possible across southeastern KS/northeastern OK into the Ozarks through 15Z. While an overall weakening trend in flash flood potential is expected over the next few hours, rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr through training may overlap hydrologically sensitive locations, resulting in runoff issues. Discussion...10Z radar/satellite imagery showed an MCS tracking across eastern OK with a convectively induced vorticity max (MCV) inferred across east-central OK. South of the MCV, a convective line was rapidly advancing eastward, limiting the threat for short-term flash flooding over eastern OK. Farther north, rainfall was more stratiform in nature with embedded convective elements. Strong lift was occurring across eastern KS/OK within a coupled upper level jet exit/entrance region supporting a divergent and diffluent regime aloft. Instability was limited however, with MUCAPE values of ~500 J/kg or less per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Expectations are for the MCV and associated areas of heavy rain with embedded training to track toward the northeast over the next 2-4 hours. While instability is forecast to remain limited across northeastern OK/southeastern KS into adjacent areas of MO/AR, strong dynamic lift ahead of the MCV and within the favorable divergent/diffluent pattern aloft may favor brief instances of SW to NE training within the unidirectional SW flow. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr will be possible along with an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain (locally higher possible) through 15Z. Overlap of these heavier rainfall rates may overlap with urban areas or an estimated 4-6 inches of rain which impacted the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK over the past 12 hours, to generate localized flash flooding. However, with time, weakening of rainfall intensities are expected with increased forward progression and a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cub1FPd4NFK64jn8GQ1EqyYez2ipYeVqsMrLaYvdXwAwh8_sCiDYnA4hlw5Mdglsc-R= f6cTdO_OJbAdFRZ6fbLpod0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38639458 38499366 37579339 35519420 35369575=20 36089627 37589583=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .