Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 03 2024 04:24:43 AWUS01 KWNH 030424 FFGMPD MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030930- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1224 AM EDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Areas affected...northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK, far southeastern KS, far southwestern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 030422Z - 030930Z Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected to develop in a zone from northwestern TX into central OK and northeastern OK through 09Z. Some spillover into southeastern KS and southwestern MO may occur as well. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and areas of training may support localized totals over 4 to 5 inches through 10Z. Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 04Z showed an eastward propagating line of thunderstorms tracking across the southern TX Panhandle, just east of the Caprock Escarpment. Additional showers and thunderstorms were noted across the Red River into much of OK. All of this activity was located near or northwest of a remnant outflow boundary which extended from near MAF to RPH in TX, then northeastward into OK between TUL and OKM. SPC mesoanalysis data indicated MLCAPE values were 500-1500 J/kg along and south of the outflow boundary, while CAPE dropped off significantly to the north of the outflow. 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt from the south were present over west-central TX into central/eastern OK, overrunning the outflow and forcing convection. Large scale lift was present over the region out ahead of a longwave trough axis moving through the southwestern U.S. and within the divergent and diffluent left-exit region of a prominent 110-130 kt upper level jet max streaking across northern Mexico into southwestern TX. Broad forcing ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough over the Southwest will allow southerly low level winds to maintain and locally strengthen over TX/OK tonight, continuing overrunning thunderstorms north of the outflow. The outflow boundary itself is expected to become more diffuse with time over OK but stay better defined over TX, to the south of the eastward advancing line. Despite the forward progression of the convective line east of the Caprock, mean southwesterly steering flow will align with the axis of low level forcing, whether it be the outflow boundary or convective lines near/north of the outflow to support training. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally higher) are likely to develop within areas of training with multiple hours of heavy rain possible over a given location. Despite mostly dry ground conditions from ongoing drought, high rainfall rates over a short period of time are expected to overwhelm soils and support areas of flash flooding, with localized totals over 4 to 5 inches possible. The flash flood risk will be enhanced if these higher rates overlap with urban corridors, including the Oklahoma City and/or Tulsa metro. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ZkYQZkpltbcbSITwUyr7lRNxPu9ZszvZsBo8UfV0cs4d_wCRn8s1Xvo6_3ly43CIlMl= xcbEvFbqWUm700Ae-eRUdrY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37399543 37189435 36199484 35119577 33759736=20 33349826 32540053 32530124 32890105 33820040=20 34779997 36239789=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .