Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 03 2024 00:42:38

ACUS01 KWNS 030042
SWODY1
SPC AC 030041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight,
primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma.

....Northwest TX into OK...
Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from
extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK.
The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the
aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south.

Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist
and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated
instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from
northwest TX into OK.

In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the
Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with
hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to
consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an
increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient
SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times,
especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as
indicated by some models.

...Jewell.. 11/03/2024

$$

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