Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 21:01:36 AWUS01 KWNH 022101 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-030300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Far southeast NM into the Permian Basin and Rolling Plains of Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 022100Z - 030300Z Summary...Discrete thunderstorms blossoming across the High Plains of New Mexico will likely expand in coverage and grow upscale into clusters through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr or more are likely, which through several rounds could cause 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon indicates that discrete thunderstorms, including supercells, have rapidly developed across southeast NM in the past few hours, and have expanded into the Permian Basin of Texas. This convection is blossoming in response to impressive deep layer ascent driven through PVA downstream of a shortwave lifting across the area combined with strong upper diffluence within an increasingly coupled upper jet structure. In the lower levels, 850mb inflow from the S/SE is lifting isentropically atop a weakening outflow boundary (which is reflected by a sharp instability gradient), while concurrently transporting robust thermodynamics northward characterized by PWs of 0.9-1.2 inches, near the daily record, and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Rainfall rates within this convection has been measured by MRMS as high as 1.25-1.5" in the last hour, leading to modest CREST unit streamflow responses already. The high-res CAMs appear to generally be under-doing the convective coverage this aftn, a theme that has been common through the day. This limits somewhat the confidence in the exact evolution the next several hours. However, despite coverage and timing issues with the guidance, they all agree that eventually thunderstorms will expand and grow upscale into clusters. This will be supported by a continued increase in deep layer ascent impinging into persistently elevated thermodynamics as the low-level flow remains. This should result in thunderstorms that intensify, supporting rainfall rates which have a 10-20% chance (HREF) and 30% chance (REFS) of exceeding 2"/hr through the aftn and into the evening. Mean 850-300mb winds are expected to remain progressive at 30 kts from the SW, but despite this, as storms organize through 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kts, intense rain rates through short-term training could result in maximum rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts. Far southeast NM, the southern Permian Basin, and the southern Cap Rock have all been very dry the past 7 days, but AHPS rainfall departures are well above normal north of there. This has lowered 3-hr FFG to just 1-1.5" across the more saturated soils. As convection expands and organizes, it could move across these more sensitive soils, leading to potential instances of flash flooding into the evening. Weiss ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fZYSOBsfKMWwBrnJl09Fu18l1wFuP18o99ZBaEdAOste4iYZ2sOyVBwb40f3S14J5VE= a50tob3cOhtjGvoTB6Ao27U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35150214 35090174 35030081 34479995 33529946=20 32739960 32020063 32010225 32340369 32760419=20 33450422 34390390 35010320=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .