Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 19:46:07 ACUS01 KWNS 021946 SWODY1 SPC AC 021944 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ....20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ....Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ....Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .