Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 19:31:38 ACUS03 KWNS 021931 SWODY3 SPC AC 021930 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ....Synopsis... The large upper trough in the Southwest will continue its eastward progression into the southern Plains. With time, the trough will lift northeast and lose amplitude. A strong mid-level jet will eject into the southern Plains and mid-Missouri Valley during the late morning and afternoon. A surface low initially in western Oklahoma will begin to accelerate northeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest by Tuesday Morning. The focus for severe storms will along the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas, which will eventually be overtaken by a cold front, and the cold front extending from Kansas into the Midwest. ....Oklahoma/Texas... The current expectation is for strongly forced line of convection to be ongoing in western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Additional convection is also possible farther east into parts of the Ozarks within a broad area of warm advection. How the western convection evolves with time will be modulated by the eastern precipitation and eventual degree of surface-based destabilization. Surface heating will be key as mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor. Even without significant surface heating, a very moist airmass should support the continuation of the convective line into central/eastern Oklahoma. Guidance is consistent in showing a linear mode and shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary support this outcome. Very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will promote a risk for severe winds and QLCS tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur, portions of eastern Oklahoma appear to be favorably positioned for a greater severe threat given the potential combination of destabilization and large-scale ascent. Portions of East Texas should observe greater surface heating. Deep-layer shear will be weaker, however. Severe wind gusts and line-embedded circulations will also be possible in these areas. ....Ozarks... Initial morning convection could pose a marginal severe threat. Weaker forcing and limited buoyancy should keep any threat isolated. The greater threat for severe weather will come with the line of convection along the cold front moving in from the west during the evening into parts of the overnight. Buoyancy will still be limited and decrease with eastward extent, but strong low-level and deep-layer wind fields will continue to support some risk for damaging winds and perhaps QLCS tornadoes. ...Wendt.. 11/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .