Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 09:41:29 AWUS01 KWNH 020941 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-021540- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 540 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...eastern NM into TX Panhandle and western OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 020940Z - 021540Z SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will continue through 15Z for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK with additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches. While additional areas of flash flooding will be likely, coverage is expected to remain isolated to scattered. DISCUSSION...0915Z radar imagery showed that an axis of thunderstorms stretched northeastward from south-central NM into the TX Panhandle with 2 to 4+ inches of rain estimated via MRMS since 03Z between ROW and AMA near US 70 in NM and US 60 in TX. Some recent southeastward bowing was observed to the southeast of AMA which has reduced training due to the reflectivity axis falling out of alignment with the mean southwesterly steering flow. However, greater lift is approaching ahead of an eastward advancing shortwave trough axis extending SSW from CO into western NM and southeastern AZ with left-exit and right-entrance ascent occurring with a pair of developing 100 kt upper level jet streaks located over northwestern Mexico and the central Plains. Recent RAP forecasts indicate the 40 kt 850 mb southeasterly LLJ is at its peak and subtle veering and weakening of the flow is expected through 15Z across southeastern NM into western TX. Realignment of the low level convergence axis is forecast to occur a bit south of its current position as the veering occurs and a weakness in magnitude occurs over the TX Panhandle near I-40 as seen in RAP output. As the aforementioned shortwave trough advances east early this morning some eastward translation to the low level convergence axis will be possible, allowing for the axis of training heavy rain (1-2 in/hr rainfall rates) to shift south and eventually east, out of NM, remaining along the northern edge of a plume of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher possible) are expected in a few locations along the low level convergence axis but coverage should remain isolated to scattered across the broader region of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. Therefore, while additional flash flooding will be likely, it is not expected to be contiguous across the area through 15Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8w5Z6C4V381UeKdmunju8WV7RMesLDcBAXBV8jgfN_M9UNpTxks9uKQpFHPmwd3v4Caa= rjIw10UnJszxdk9DdDRwkKg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36620010 36559949 36119924 35569926 34969966=20 34260065 33780198 33370342 33230420 33530458=20 34350398 35300280 36020156=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .