Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 07:29:31

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX
TO MO...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday
night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and
damaging winds should be the main hazards.

....Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2
into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of
strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and
intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a
Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a
positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This
should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling
the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface
cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This
will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with
the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from
the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The
strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with
slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the
IA/WI/IL area.

The degree of instability is questionable, especially with
north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of
the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend
on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley,
as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest
boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused
corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in
later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado
threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on
Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely
slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as
large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe
potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively
weaker instability.

...Grams.. 11/02/2024

$$

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