Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 05:53:32 ACUS02 KWNS 020553 SWODY2 SPC AC 020551 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ....Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ....Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ...Grams.. 11/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .