Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 04:55:02 ACUS01 KWNS 020454 SWODY1 SPC AC 020453 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ....Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ....Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ...Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .