Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 02 2024 04:19:49

AWUS01 KWNH 020419
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-020930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020417Z - 020930Z

SUMMARY...A flash flood threat is expected to increase across
portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle through 09Z.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected along with 6-hour totals
2-4 inches.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and GOES East infrared satellite
imagery has shown an increasing coverage of scattered
thunderstorms over southeastern NM, between CNM to just northwest
of CVS since 03Z. Southeasterly low level moisture transport, as
seen on CIRA Layered PW imagery below 700 mb, was contributing to
increasing instability over southeastern NM into the southern TX
Panhandle with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE on the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis
co-located with the ongoing storms. 850 mb winds of 30-35 kt were
observed via VAD wind data at KMAF with speed convergence and low
level upslope helping to focus storms.

Back to the west, an eastward moving upper level trough was
observed over the southwestern U.S. with lift out ahead likely to
increase thunderstorm potential across the southern High Plains
through the remainder of the night. The past few runs of the RAP
have supported 30-40 kt 850 mb winds broadening over the Permian
Basin with 40+ kt forecast over the Pecos River Valley in western
TX developing between 06-07Z. Continued moisture advection should
allow MLCAPE to expand as well with 500-1500 J/kg becoming more
widespread across southeastern NM into the western TX Panhandle
through 08Z. While it is not yet clear precisely where, an axis of
low level convergence oriented SW to NE or similar to the mean
steering flow will become better defined tonight, likely allowing
for repeating and occasional training of thunderstorms, capable of
producing 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates. Expectations are for 3 to 6-hr
totals of 2-4 inches which may result in localized flash flooding
through 09Z from portions of southeastern/east-central NM into the
western TX Panhandle.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!57sdomWTh_bBJfA-P_ovTBj3LV_z286AyPyu1zucbTYPqUwm8Vu9YAUUBBZBE_ssU_Tm=
MNhlia1Tm2xvM23pReqb1LE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36400148 35040196 33620285 32730365 32320472=20
            32910505 34380481 35300412 35980338 36360268=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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