Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 01 2024 16:18:58 ACUS01 KWNS 011618 SWODY1 SPC AC 011617 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ....Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. ...Smith/Moore.. 11/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .