Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 01 2024 07:29:55 ACUS03 KWNS 010729 SWODY3 SPC AC 010728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS TO NORTH TX... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central to southern Great Plains. ....Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough across the central to southern Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will still remain on the backside of the trough before finally ejecting through the base on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains. This low should reach the Upper Midwest by 12Z Monday, with additional cyclogenesis occurring in west TX. ....Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with multiple competing elements that should support/hinder severe potential, along with substantial mesoscale uncertainty. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk remains warranted at this juncture. Extensive convection is expected late D1 through much of D2 across the southern High Plains into the central and southern Great Plains. Some of this will linger into Sunday, most likely in the OK to north TX area. With persistent low-level warm theta-e advection and upper-level difluence, convection may continue through the diurnal heating cycle. Best chance for severe in this regime may be focused along the trailing outflow/baroclinic zone where it intersects with the west TX dryline. A separate area of severe potential should develop near the central High Plains cyclone in western to central KS. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates along and another day of moisture influx should be adequate for late afternoon to evening storms. With eastern extent, however, the deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection may yield a more confined/limited MLCAPE plume in KS/NE. A final round of severe convection may develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent becomes strong ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across all regimes, mid to upper hodograph elongation should be pronounced, yielding a conditionally favorable environment for supercells and organized clusters. ...Grams.. 11/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .