Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 01 2024 05:46:56 ACUS02 KWNS 010546 SWODY2 SPC AC 010545 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. ....Southern Great Plains... Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles, within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak, suggesting localized strong gusts early. A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple tornadoes may develop as well. Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection, the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night. ...Grams.. 11/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .