Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 01 2024 04:47:24

ACUS01 KWNS 010447
SWODY1
SPC AC 010445

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal
hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High
Plains from this evening into the overnight.

....Synopsis...
Moderate west to southwest flow aloft will stretch from the Plains
into the Northeast today, with a broad upper trough across much of
the West. A strong embedded wave will drop southward overnight from
OR/CA into the Great basin, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this
system, gradual height rises will occur over the southern Plains as
the western system amplifies.

At the surface, high pressure will exist from the Great Lakes
southward toward the northern Gulf Coast, with moist low-level
easterly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico and into TX. By the
end of the period 12Z Saturday, lower 60s F dewpoints will be as far
west as the TX/NM border.

....TX...
Gradual moistening of the air mass will occur across TX for much of
the period, with increasing warm advection around 850 mb overnight
as the upper trough amplifies to the west. Still, wind speeds will
not be particularly strong, perhaps around 30-40 kt over west TX by
12Z Saturday.

Although gradual warming aloft is forecast overnight, 500 mb
temperatures around -10 C will still exist around the latitude of
Midland. With lower 60s F dewpoints at this elevation, MUCAPE will
likely exceed 1000 J/kg, while deep-layer effective shear increases
to around 35 kt.

Thunderstorms will likely form after 03Z over much of eastern NM and
far west TX, eventually spreading into the far western TX Panhandle
and South Plains. Generally veering and increasing winds with height
may favor a few transient storms capable of marginally severe hail,
though some midlevel weakness in wind speeds is noted. As such, a
Marginal Risk for hail appears warranted tonight, perhaps as far
southwest as El Paso TX.

...Jewell/Weinman.. 11/01/2024

$$

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