Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 31 2024 16:31:23

ACUS01 KWNS 311631
SWODY1
SPC AC 311629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of producing occasional wind
gusts remain possible today from parts of east Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.

....ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South...
A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this
update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely
organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this
afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.
Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent,
and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of
MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow
associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the
ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer
shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall
severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability.
Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be
considered with the next scheduled update (20Z).

....Ohio Valley/Great Lakes...
Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast
to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger
low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great
Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for
gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low.

...Gleason/Kerr.. 10/31/2024

$$

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