Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 30 2024 08:04:39 ACUS48 KWNS 300804 SWOD48 SPC AC 300803 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Rockies and Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place over much of the southern and central Plains. Along the western edge of the moist airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Thunderstorms that develop along and near this instability axis will have a chance to be severe. Supercells could produce large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. On Sunday, low-level moisture advection is expected to continue over much of the Great Plains, as the upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. Model forecasts are in reasonably good agreement, with an axis of moderate instability developing Sunday afternoon from northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma northward into Kansas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates should support supercell development, with a potential for isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat should persist into the evening as scattered severe storms move eastward across the southern and central Plains. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the southern High Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern and central Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor of weak instability from central and north Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Moderate deep-layer shear near the instability axis should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail as the primary threats. At this time, the timing of the ejecting mid-level jet, and magnitude of instability remain too uncertain to issue a threat area. ....Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, suggesting the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms would be greatest from Kentucky southwestward into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. However, spatial and magnitude uncertainty are substantial at this range. ...Broyles.. 10/30/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .