Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 29 2024 19:32:08 ACUS01 KWNS 291932 SWODY1 SPC AC 291930 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ....20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ....Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .