Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 29 2024 19:08:07 ACUS03 KWNS 291908 SWODY3 SPC AC 291906 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ....Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ....Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ...Goss.. 10/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .