Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 29 2024 12:24:07 ACUS01 KWNS 291224 SWODY1 SPC AC 291222 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe hail and/or wind. ....Central/Southern Plains... A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized potential for severe hail and wind late tonight. ...Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .