Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 29 2024 00:34:16 FOUS30 KWBC 290034 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 834 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Day 1 Valid 01Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Otto Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST... A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across the central portion of the country (SPC denotes a Slight Risk of severe wx), which in turn will increase the potential for heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The Marginal Risk area was maintained over the region to account for the somewhat lower-end threat. At this point there appears to be two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders amid areas of higher instability and the second across Iowa into Wisconsin near the stronger height falls. Very dry antecedent conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future guidance (including the CAM guidance). Fracasso/Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ypW0NzTnD9wHcaQpSTR0aewJNdy-kpQOnzb7jJXHZ4B= 0rX20KJGDw5JlCnsS7EUj7biS2T7G-nJVC9vAxxeBHkDJvg$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ypW0NzTnD9wHcaQpSTR0aewJNdy-kpQOnzb7jJXHZ4B= 0rX20KJGDw5JlCnsS7EUj7biS2T7G-nJVC9vAxxeFnLh10E$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ypW0NzTnD9wHcaQpSTR0aewJNdy-kpQOnzb7jJXHZ4B= 0rX20KJGDw5JlCnsS7EUj7biS2T7G-nJVC9vAxxezBV07PI$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .