Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 19:46:04

ACUS01 KWNS 281945
SWODY1
SPC AC 281944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

....20Z Update...
The primary change to this outlook was to remove thunder
probabilities over portions of the Pacific Northwest. Stronger
forcing for ascent continues to drift eastward in tandem with the
upper trough that is now shifting toward the Interior West.
Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

...Squitieri.. 10/28/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will amplify further today as it moves from the
eastern Pacific across the western states. Low-topped showers across
parts of coastal WA/OR may be capable of producing occasional
lightning flashes, as mid-level temperatures beneath the upper
trough remain rather cool, which is supporting weak MUCAPE. But,
better forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will overspread
portions of the Great Basin and central Rockies through the period,
where isolated thunderstorms may occur even though moisture will be
quite limited.

A separate area of isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential
remains evident across parts of the Great Lakes tonight, as
warm/moist advection increases in tandem with a strengthening
low-level jet. Weak instability will limit the severe threat across
all these regions, and severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.