Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 19:20:32 ACUS03 KWNS 281920 SWODY3 SPC AC 281919 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop Wednesday from the southern Plains north-northeastward to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest. ....Synopsis... An upper trough moving out of the interior West is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Wednesday, shunted from its prior, more eastward trajectory by stout ridging over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, steady eastward advance of a cold front across the central third of the country is expected. By the end of the period (early Thursday morning), the boundary should extend from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward across the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks region, to central Texas. ....Upper Midwest to Texas... Thunderstorm development is expected to occur -- potentially early in the period -- along the advancing cold front, as lapse rates gradually steepen atop a sufficiently moist/gradually warming boundary layer. The more substantial destabilization is expected to evolve from roughly Kansas southward, while the strongest/deepest forcing for ascent should occur from roughly Kansas northward. As such, initial convective development is expected in the vicinity of the Middle Missouri Valley during the morning, and spreading northeastward into the progressively weaker-CAPE environment into the upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes area. Despite the more limited CAPE, however, strong southwesterly flow aloft -- increasing with height -- will result in shear supporting at least isolated stronger/potentially severe storms. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risks, spreading eastward with time as the front advances. Threat should gradually diminish after dark, with the loss of heating/diminishing CAPE. Farther south, convective initiation should occur later, given weaker forcing for ascent, and residual capping. Storms that do initiate will occur in a thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating updrafts, and thus expect potential for large hail and locally damaging gusts with stronger storms. A tornado or two may also occur, though some upscale growth is expected to occur with time, potentially limiting this risk. While some severe potential may continue into the overnight hours, weakening CAPE should correspond to a gradual decrease in severe potential through 31/12Z. ...Goss.. 10/28/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .