Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 18:45:08 FOUS30 KWBC 281844 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Fracasso Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST... A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by=20 Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to=20 lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air=20 filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air=20 advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and=20 thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity=20 across the central portion of the country (SPC denotes a Slight=20 Risk of severe wx), which in turn will increase the potential for=20 heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The=20 Marginal Risk area was maintained over the region to account for=20 the somewhat lower-end threat. At this point there appears to be=20 two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders=20 amid areas of higher instability and the second across Iowa into=20 Wisconsin near the stronger height falls. Very dry antecedent=20 conditions should help minimize any threat (ergo, current FFG=20 guidance values are high), but a Marginal Risk outline still seems=20 appropriate for this lead time with room to adjust with future=20 guidance (including the CAM guidance).=20 Fracasso/Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6NZqk6E5N-D4O6jbu13zC--WhZtug9o2ITl0itgkBBui= 0GKbEgjTvuxVwizH5eQQ4QoeyL5Ef4MYrN2wvjBSJlHs6cI$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6NZqk6E5N-D4O6jbu13zC--WhZtug9o2ITl0itgkBBui= 0GKbEgjTvuxVwizH5eQQ4QoeyL5Ef4MYrN2wvjBSsmf5XB0$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6NZqk6E5N-D4O6jbu13zC--WhZtug9o2ITl0itgkBBui= 0GKbEgjTvuxVwizH5eQQ4QoeyL5Ef4MYrN2wvjBSvN-j7m0$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .