Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 12:31:00

ACUS01 KWNS 281230
SWODY1
SPC AC 281229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...
Deep convective potential will remain limited today with severe
storms not expected. This will be influenced by an amplifying
large-scale pattern, highlights by strong height falls over the
West, particularly across the Great Basin to central/southern
Rockies. In this scenario, steep lapse rate profiles may support a
few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific
Coast today. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening lapse
rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners may contribute to
isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later this
afternoon into evening.

Later tonight, primarily after 03Z, elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread east-northeastward across the Upper
Great Lakes. This will be a byproduct of a robustly strong
southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection regime emanating from
the central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 10/28/2024

$$

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