Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 08:58:58 ACUS48 KWNS 280858 SWOD48 SPC AC 280857 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe threat marginal. From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday, moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the severe threat. ....Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively weak, keeping any severe threat marginal. ...Broyles.. 10/28/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .