Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 08:10:42 FOUS30 KWBC 280809 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 28 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST... A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Plains by Wednesday morning. Surface troughing will help Gulf moisture to lift northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler air filtering in from the west/north will encounter the warm air advection associated with the low-level jet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across the central portion of the country; which in turn will increase the potential for heavy rainfall and local areas of concern for flooding. The inherited old Day 4 Marginal Risk area was maintained with minor expansions across portions of Texas and across Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin to reflect the latest WPC QPF and model trends. At this point there appears to be two distinct areas of concentration for the heaviest QPF. The first near the juncture of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas state borders and the second near the juncture of eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Given the current FFG guidance and drier antecedant conditions, a Marginal still seems most appropriate for the level of risk. Should newer guidance continue to trend higher=20 an embedded Slight Risk may need to be considered as the event gets closer. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7eLFeJprfSe0BfM8_kVVDKxHhMhU_eCd68xQ0E6lp7Id= MFdNGKtmYiJKvV7tE1uq4P3rYToI8Phr8pl95S_27YW5Zuk$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7eLFeJprfSe0BfM8_kVVDKxHhMhU_eCd68xQ0E6lp7Id= MFdNGKtmYiJKvV7tE1uq4P3rYToI8Phr8pl95S_2mkR1G7A$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7eLFeJprfSe0BfM8_kVVDKxHhMhU_eCd68xQ0E6lp7Id= MFdNGKtmYiJKvV7tE1uq4P3rYToI8Phr8pl95S_2GDBh6pY$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .