Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 05:49:28

ACUS01 KWNS 280549
SWODY1
SPC AC 280547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal
Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may
also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region.
Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the
overnight hours.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and
in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly
isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to
suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper
troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few
flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast
early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the
interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated
convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day.

During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across
the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the
upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the
overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak
buoyancy to develop across this region.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024

$$

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