Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 28 2024 05:51:31 ACUS02 KWNS 280551 SWODY2 SPC AC 280550 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern Plains. ....Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley within the mid to late evening, where instability should be sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern Plains. The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail. Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an outlook upgrade at this time. ...Broyles.. 10/28/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .