Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 27 2024 19:27:56

ACUS01 KWNS 271927
SWODY1
SPC AC 271926

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

....20Z Update...
No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion
below for details.

...Weinman.. 10/27/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as
a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling
temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates
as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated
weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels
could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by
late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm
potential this evening and overnight.

Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern
MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short
term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale
ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating
occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across
the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where
a surface front is currently located, this feature should support
convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level
convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream.

$$

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