Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 27 2024 16:06:58

ACUS01 KWNS 271606
SWODY1
SPC AC 271605

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as
a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling
temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates
as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated
weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels
could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by
late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm
potential this evening and overnight.

Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern
MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short
term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale
ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating
occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across
the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where
a surface front is currently located, this feature should support
convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level
convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream.

...Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024

$$

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