Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 27 2024 12:48:54

ACUS01 KWNS 271248
SWODY1
SPC AC 271247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated
thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and
coastal Carolinas.

....Discussion...
Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today
in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough.
Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as
thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection
within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings
suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting
discharge by late morning into afternoon.

Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread
southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late
afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near
the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized.
Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool
side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate
buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels
required for lightning.

A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across
parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Guyer.. 10/27/2024

$$

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