Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 27 2024 07:27:53 ACUS03 KWNS 270727 SWODY3 SPC AC 270727 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible Tuesday night from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ....Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located between the western U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. upper-level ridge. This will help to maintain a broad belt of strong low-level flow across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday evening, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F along a narrow corridor from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains, as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front from the evening into the overnight period as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. NAM forecast soundings ahead of the front from eastern Nebraska northeastward into southern Minnesota have 0-6 km shear steadily increasing from the evening into the overnight, with 0-6 km shear peaking in the 60 to 70 knot range late Tuesday night. Instability is also forecast to increase Tuesday night, with MLCAPE reaching the 500 to 750 J/Kg range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to reach 7 C/km in some areas. The environment should support isolated supercell development with a potential for hail. Storms that develop behind the front will likely be elevated. Isolated surface-based storms are also expected to the east of the front, where a few marginally severe wind gusts may occur. The limitation for this scenario is that much of the convective development is expected to take place overnight, when thermodynamics will not be as favorable. This may keep any severe threat localized and marginal. ...Broyles.. 10/27/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .