Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 26 2024 07:34:48 ACUS48 KWNS 260734 SWOD48 SPC AC 260733 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ....Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. ...Broyles.. 10/26/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .