Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 26 2024 05:39:16

ACUS01 KWNS 260539
SWODY1
SPC AC 260537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous
states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper
ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across
the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability
will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow
aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies.

Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle
across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend
into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model
guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern
MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent
across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a
result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With
higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest
some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even
so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely
concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024

$$

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