Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 25 2024 19:54:12

ACUS01 KWNS 251954
SWODY1
SPC AC 251952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based
on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

...Wendt.. 10/25/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will
persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an
eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A
surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across
the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley
through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this
afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also
northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the
lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear
within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe
thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning
flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent
Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with an upper trough support weak instability.

$$

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