Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 25 2024 00:38:41

ACUS01 KWNS 250038
SWODY1
SPC AC 250036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO IOWA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible from
eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening
into early tonight.

....01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale forcing is spreading across central IA,
coincident with focused low-level warm advection along the nose of
the LLJ. Scattered strong thunderstorms have evolved within this
corridor, including several clusters. A few marginally severe hail
reports were noted earlier across northern IA, but overall MESH
cores are not that significant as the magnitude of instability is
not that great, despite the steep mid-level lapse rates. Robust
updrafts extend southwest along the cold front across northeast KS.
This activity has developed within a more buoyant air mass
characterized by near-dry adiabatic lapse rates in the 0-3km layer,
and MLCAPE around 900 J/kg, per 00z sounding from TOP. Large hail
(around 1 inch) should be the primary concern with storms as they
propagate across eastern KS into northwest MO, along with some risk
for gusty winds. Nocturnal cooling should lessen instability later
this evening and this will likely lead to weaker updrafts and small
hail and weaker downdrafts.

...Darrow.. 10/25/2024

$$

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