Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 24 2024 16:26:04 ACUS01 KWNS 241625 SWODY1 SPC AC 241624 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ....Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .