Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 24 2024 08:49:31

ACUS48 KWNS 240849
SWOD48
SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern
CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central
CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the
western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance
for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will
result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple
embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow,
several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be
lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week
Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better
low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as
the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once
more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the
sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once
this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible
from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the
evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which
will impact severe weather potential.

...Bentley.. 10/24/2024

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