Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 24 2024 05:27:02 ACUS01 KWNS 240526 SWODY1 SPC AC 240525 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ....SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ....Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ...Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .