Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 23 2024 12:22:59

ACUS01 KWNS 231222
SWODY1
SPC AC 231221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

....Upper OH Valley into western NY this evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley this morning
will progress east-southeastward to NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic by
the end of the period.  Ascent preceding the midlevel trough and an
associated surface cold front could support some shallow convective
showers late this afternoon/evening from northeast OH to western NY.
 However, marginal low-level moisture and minimal buoyancy suggest
that thunderstorms are unlikely.

....Northern AR to central OK this afternoon...
Boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F and surface heating will drive
surface-based buoyancy this afternoon along a slow-moving front from
northern AR into central OK.  Thermodynamic profiles suggest some
potential for deep convection, but forcing for ascent will remain
shallow/weak at best.  Overall, thunderstorm potential appears too
limited for an outlook area.

...Thompson/Goss.. 10/23/2024

$$

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