Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 23 2024 04:46:26

ACUS01 KWNS 230446
SWODY1
SPC AC 230444

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight.

....Lower Great Lakes to northern New England...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of
southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by
Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side
along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward.
Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE
should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a
brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities
appear to be less than 10 percent.

....Central AR to southeast OK...
The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south
and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate
boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around
12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow
convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is
plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front
and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are
less than 10 percent.

...Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024

$$

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