Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 22 2024 08:43:47

ACUS48 KWNS 220843
SWOD48
SPC AC 220842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a
mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface
high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By
late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to
the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still
considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this
trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong
trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part
of next week.

Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with
consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental
airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not
forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This
may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and
Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more
progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer
period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather
threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8.

...Bentley.. 10/22/2024

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