Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 22 2024 05:32:15

ACUS01 KWNS 220532
SWODY1
SPC AC 220530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

....North-central States...
Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in
association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO
Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave,
sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should
yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest
cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective
profile should mitigate severe potential.

Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify
across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest.
Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm
conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon.
Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based
thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front
sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be
inadequate for supporting lightning production.

....TX Trans-Pecos...
Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly
enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse
thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near
the Big Bend.

...Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024

$$

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